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Images of supermassive black holes produced using very long baseline interferometry provide a pathway to directly observing effects of a highly curved spacetime, such as a bright “photon ring” that arises from strongly lensed emission. In addition, the emission near supermassive black holes is highly variable, with bright high-energy flares regularly observed. We demonstrate that intrinsic variability can introduce prominent associated changes in the relative brightness of the photon ring. We analyze both semianalytic toy models and GRMHD simulations with magnetic flux eruption events, showing that they each exhibit a characteristic “loop” in the space of relative photon ring brightness versus total flux density. For black holes viewed at high inclination, the relative photon ring brightness can change by an order of magnitude, even with variations in total flux density that are comparatively mild. We show that gravitational lensing, Doppler boosting, and magnetic field structure all significantly affect this feature, and we discuss the prospects for observing it in observations of M87∗ and Sgr A∗ with the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope. 

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced images of two supermassive black holes, Messier 87* (M 87*) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). The EHT collaboration used these images to indirectly constrain black hole parameters by calibrating measurements of the sky-plane emission morphology to images of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. Here, we develop a model for directly constraining the black hole mass, spin, and inclination through signatures of lensing, redshift, and frame dragging, while simultaneously marginalizing over the unknown accretion and emission properties. By assuming optically thin, axisymmetric, equatorial emission near the black hole, our model gains orders of magnitude in speed over similar approaches that require radiative transfer. Using 2017 EHT M 87* baseline coverage, we use fits of the model to itself to show that the data are insufficient to demonstrate existence of the photon ring. We then survey time-averaged GRMHD simulations fitting EHT-like data, and find that our model is best-suited to fitting magnetically arrested disks, which are the favored class of simulations for both M 87* and Sgr A*. For these simulations, the best-fit model parameters are within ∼10% of the true mass and within ∼10° for inclination. With 2017 EHT coverage and 1% fractional uncertainty on amplitudes, spin is unconstrained. Accurate inference of spin axis position angle depends strongly on spin and electron temperature. Our results show the promise of directly constraining black hole spacetimes with interferometric data, but they also show that nearly identical images permit large differences in black hole properties, highlighting degeneracies between the plasma properties, spacetime, and, most crucially, the unknown emission geometry when studying lensed accretion flow images at a single frequency.

 

Abstract Very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of active galactic nuclei at millimetre wavelengths have the power to reveal the launching and initial collimation region of extragalactic radio jets, down to 10–100 gravitational radii ( r g  ≡  G M / c 2 ) scales in nearby sources 1 . Centaurus A is the closest radio-loud source to Earth 2 . It bridges the gap in mass and accretion rate between the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in Messier 87 and our Galactic Centre. A large southern declination of −43° has, however, prevented VLBI imaging of Centaurus A below a wavelength of 1 cm thus far. Here we show the millimetre VLBI image of the source, which we obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope at 228 GHz. Compared with previous observations 3 , we image the jet of Centaurus A at a tenfold higher frequency and sixteen times sharper resolution and thereby probe sub-lightday structures. We reveal a highly collimated, asymmetrically edge-brightened jet as well as the fainter counterjet. We find that the source structure of Centaurus A resembles the jet in Messier 87 on ~500  r g scales remarkably well. Furthermore, we identify the location of Centaurus A’s SMBH with respect to its resolved jet core at a wavelength of 1.3 mm and conclude that the source’s event horizon shadow 4 should be visible at terahertz frequencies. This location further supports the universal scale invariance of black holes over a wide range of masses 5,6 .